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On NFL draft day, every team has the chance to win 鈥� or lose 鈥� big. With millions of dollars on the line and just minutes to make a final decision on each pick, a single choice can shape a franchise for years. 好色先生TV experts said those intense moments offer a window into how people make decisions when the stakes are highest.

The science of choking under pressure

The draft might seem like a pure test of judgment: Pick the best player available. For Steven M. Chase, a professor of biomedical engineering and the Neuroscience Institute at 好色先生TV, those moments reveal something interesting about the human brain.听

鈥淢ost of what I study has to do with these moments in time when you're about to perform an action, and you know what the outcome might be if you're successful. So the draft is fun to watch because the stakes are so high for these teams,鈥� he said.听

Chase studies what happens when people and how the brain prepares for action. In controlled experiments, his team has found that as rewards increase, performance improves 鈥� up to a point. Things like peer influence, time constraints and even the promise of a big reward can affect performance.听

At the draft, the coaches, general managers and analysts have just a few minutes 鈥� 10, in the first round 鈥� to make their pick. Their teams have spent months evaluating players, running scenarios and building models to guide them. When things go as planned, they may not feel much sway from the ticking clock.听

But when something unexpected happens 鈥� a top prospect falls, a rival team makes a surprise move 鈥� decision-makers are forced into the very conditions where pressure can interfere most.

What looks like hesitation or second-guessing in those moments may not just be strategic decision-making. It may also be a biological response to the intensity of the moment. When the potential reward is highest, Chase said, performance doesn鈥檛 always rise to meet it. That鈥檚 thanks to something he calls 鈥渢he jackpot effect.鈥�听

鈥淧eople are more likely to be able to throw a paper ball into a wastebasket for $2 than to win $100,鈥� Chase explained. 鈥淚t鈥檚 easy to follow through on a plan when the stakes are low. But when everything is on the line 鈥� a game-winning shot or a critical call 鈥� performance often tanks.鈥�

Why long-term thinking is so difficult听

By nature, the draft is about planning for the future. Teams won鈥檛 know the results of their picks for months or years to come. That kind of planning is not something people are generally good at, said Cleotilde (Coty) Gonzalez, a professor in CMU鈥檚 Department of Social and Decision Sciences.

Gonzalez, who studies how people make decisions in complex environments, said one of the biggest challenges is that many important decisions unfold over time 鈥� and the consequences aren鈥檛 immediately visible, like when managing a personal budget or maintaining a healthy weight. In those situations, inputs and outcomes accumulate gradually and are not always easy to balance.

鈥淭he main mistake is to underestimate the delay between cause and effect,鈥� Gonzalez said. 鈥淚f we don鈥檛 observe an effect right away, we assume nothing is happening.鈥�

That gap between action and outcome makes it difficult to connect cause and effect. By the time the results of a decision become clear, they are often shaped by many other choices made along the way. In the NFL draft, a player鈥檚 true impact may not be fully understood for years 鈥� long after the moment of selection has passed.

Experience, Gonzalez said, helps bridge that uncertainty.

鈥淯nder time pressure, seasoned experts are better able to identify which details matter most and retrieve relevant information quickly. If you鈥檙e new to the decision-making team, you鈥檙e more likely to focus on the wrong signals or rely on instincts that don鈥檛 fit the situation,鈥� she听 said.听

What data can 鈥� and cannot听鈥� measure

NFL teams aren鈥檛 making decisions blindly. Decisions in the draft aren't made by individuals alone. They're made by teams, supported by data.

, an associate professor of marketing and strategy at Carnegie Mellon鈥檚 Tepper School of Business, said that sports organizations operate in one of the most data-rich decision environments anywhere.

鈥淚n sports, you have decades of consistent data and clear outcomes,鈥� Derdenger said. 鈥淭hat gives teams a real advantage in decision-making.鈥�

Every college play, player metric and game situation can be analyzed. Teams use that information to build models that estimate how likely a prospect is to succeed 鈥� not just in general, but alongside particular teammates and coaches.

Data is only part of the picture.

Inside draft rooms, the people making the decisions 鈥� scouts, analysts and coaches 鈥� matter just as much as the team they're trying to build. Like businesses making high-stakes hires, decision makers also weigh harder-to-measure qualities: how a player performs under pressure, whether they build trust and how they shape a team鈥檚 culture. Those factors don鈥檛 show up cleanly in a dataset.

Derdenger argues that culture is the secret sauce. 鈥淭he real goal is building a room where authenticity isn't just welcomed 鈥� it's expected,鈥� he said.听

In draft rooms, scouts, analysts and coaches all bring different perspectives. But if people hesitate to speak up 鈥� because of things like hierarchy or fear of being wrong 鈥� the decision-making process breaks down.

鈥淚f people censor themselves, you鈥檙e no longer making decisions with full information. Once your scouts start playing it safe with their reports, you鈥檝e already lost. You鈥檙e essentially heading into the draft with a blind spot, Derdenger said.

Over time, that dynamic can lead to groupthink, where consensus overrides critical evaluation.

鈥淭he danger isn鈥檛 just one bad decision,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 the accumulation of poor decisions over time.鈥�